Wargaming and WWII

I heard Norman Friedman speak on wargaming and world war II.  He made the point that the US could hope to cut off Japans overseas resupply and, if that didn't end the war, burn them out with bombing.  He then argued that the japanese had no such endgame thought out.  But I think the japanese believed that the US would simply tire of a long war (which they did) and then sue for peace on terms favorable to japan (you know, like what happened with vietnam a bit later).  Perhaps its Friedman who is just not thinking like the enemy thinks.