If the Russians had put a man on the moon first. If venera had found life on venus. If Viking had found life on mars. If the space shuttle had reduced launch costs by more than an order of magnitude. If some economically important space processing had been developed on the ISS.
If seti had heard intelligent signals from space. If any of these had happened then we might be sending humans to mars today. But they haven't happened, at least not yet.
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